MUMBAI: Reality television series India‘s Got Talent, which kicked off on Colors on 22 September, will see a 25 per cent fall in its opening viewership over last year, according to a forecast by MEC.
The GroupM media and analytics agency has predicted the show to score a debut rating of 2.4 among the 15 years+ age group in SEC ABC compared to a TVR of 3.18 in the last season.
The promo levels are currently similar to last year and, thus, there is nothing additional to drive viewership for a tight time slot, said MEC.
MEC alongside Meritus Analytics India has extended the same methodology to estimate IGT ratings as was used during Indian Premier League (IPL) and Kaun Banega Crorepati (KBC) forecast.
Earlier, the agency had predicted that KBC would clock 5.4 TVR in its opening weekend, 10 per cent higher than the previous edition.
MEC national director, analytics and insight Geetha Shiv said there will be duplication of audiences between KBC and IGT.
"Though the formats of KBC and IGT are completely different, both being reality shows there could be some duplication between audiences. With IGT being scheduled immediately after KBC in this season, there could be viewer fatigue which can lead to dip in rating compared to last season," Shiv said.
According to MEC, the key influencing factors remain the same for IGT as in the case of KBC, which are: Program promotions on the channel, network and other channels, promotions across other media platforms like radio and newspapers, search volume index as a measure of viewer buzz, the base channel share of the airing channel.
The KBC and IGT were scheduled in non-conflicting time bands in the last season with KBC during weekdays and IGT during weekends.
Meritus Analytics managing partner Sunder Muthuraman added, "In difficult times, planning investments and ROI is critical. Forecasting trends and results help in doing the right levels of investment and avoid over/under spending. This applies to media business (and any business) today. Meritus has tested frameworks to help forecast results with given inputs and help businesses plan for better ROI."
