Digital distribution of content, aided by rising broadband penetration, will be the greatest driver of new entertainment and media spending in 2005-2006, says the just released PricewaterhouseCoopers' "Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2002-2006".

The Outlook forecasts a gradual rebound with the ad market beginning to re-solidify in 2002, gaining strength in 2003, and turning out strong single digit growth during 2004-2006 worldwide. While global ad spend will increase at 4.8 per cent, global entertainment and media (E&M) spending will reach $1.4 trillion in 2006, for a 5.2 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next five years, says the report.

PricewaterhouseCoopers anticipates that global E&M spending will reach $1.4 trillion in 2006, for a 5.2 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next five years. Near-term economic weakness and slow labour force growth in the Asia/Pacific will however hold growth to low single-digit rates, says the report. The market, already the largest on a global basis, will expand from $208 billion in 2001 to $261 billion in 2006, averaging 4.7 per cent compound annual increases, it says.

"Digital evolution" will positively affect the TV distribution sector for the length of the forecast period, with upgrades to digital cable and satellite boosting subscription spending, especially in regions where cable and satellite penetration are already high. Subscriber growth will also drive spending in regions with low multichannel penetration, says the report.

In 2001, the Outlook says, the global E&M industry grew by 1.5 per cent, exceeding the $ 1 trillion mark, notwithstanding dotcom failures, a global market downturn and the events of 9/11, says the report. Piracy and unauthorised use of copyrighted material will continue to limit growth throughout the forecast period, especially in recorded music. Unless an industry-wide solution is reached, piracy issues will begin seriously affecting other major E&M sectors, including filmed entertainment, home video and consumer book publishing.

REGIONWISE GROWTH

Asia/Pacific's E&M industry will be fueled by telecommunications deregulation, low Internet penetration levels that leave room for substantial growth (a 17.3 percent CAGR is expected), as well as government initiatives to promote Internet usage. In addition, the 2002 World Cup in Japan and Korea will bolster the Sports market. 

The market, already the largest on a global basis, will expand from $208 billion in 2001 to $261 billion in 2006, averaging 4.7 percent compound annual increases.

The US, the largest market in terms of overall entertainment and media spending at $438 billion in 2001, is projected to expand at a 5.5 per cent CAGR through 2006. Internet Advertising and Access Spending will enjoy significant growth, due mainly to broadband and subscriber upgrades to higher-priced access packages. This segment will experience double-digit compound annual growth of 10.8 per cent in the US, with spending jumping to $40 billion by 2006. With digital cable and DBS comprising 73 per cent of multichannel subscribers, TV distribution spending will soar to $100 billion in 2006.

Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) is the second largest region with 2001 E&M spending of $339 billion. The Internet will be the fastest growing segment, followed by Sports, which will be bolstered by the 2006 World Cup in Germany and its associated television rights. EMEA will continue to experience moderate growth for the duration of the forecast period, with spending reaching $426 billion by 2006.

Canada, the smallest region with $24 billion in entertainment and media spending in 2001, is expected to be the fastest growing, at 5.7 per cent CAGR. Primary drivers have been an advertising market that has held up relatively well despite the global economic downturn; a healthy home video and film production business; and the establishment of new digital channels.

SECTORWISE GROWTH

Television Networks (Broadcast and Cable) - Projected advertising rebound, teamed with new channel launches, will drive growth. Canada will experience greatest the growth rate - 8.7 per cent - while US spending is expected to reach more than $54 billion by 2006. Globally, television networks will peak at $144 billion in 2006. 

TV Distribution (Station, Cable and Satellite) - "Digital evolution" will positively affect this sector for the length of the forecast period, with upgrades to digital cable and satellite boosting subscription spending, especially in regions where cable and satellite penetration are already high. Subscriber growth will also drive spending in regions with low multichannel penetration. Global spending will rise to $210 billion by 2006, growing at a 6.9 per cent CAGR. 

Filmed Entertainment - Spending worldwide will be fueled by strong box office receipts, boosted by the expansion of local productions. DVDs will continue to boost the home video market, but the category will be adversely affected by piracy. The filmed entertainment segment will expand at a 5.7 per cent CAGR, increasing from $59 billion in 2001 to $79 billion in 2006.

Internet Advertising and Access Spending - Fastest growing segment over the next five years, expanding by 12.1 percent CAGR to total $94 billion in 2006, up from $53 billion in 2001. The principal drivers will be increased broadband availability and rising online penetration, while a strong e-commerce market will lead to a rebound in online advertising. 

Sports - The biggest driver over the forecast period will be the World Cup in 2002 and 2006 (football obviously), and rising television rights fees. However, financial problems for European rights holders will result in a decrease in rights fees in non-World Cup years. The segment will grow at a 6.6 per cent average rate, rising to $50 billion in 2006 from $36 billion in 2001.