There's
good news round the corner for the Indian ad industry.
The annual forecast of global advertising expenditure till 2004
released by Zenith Optimedia Group this week, paints a relatively
rosy picture for the country and neighbouring China even as it
predicts a faintly dismal scenario for the rest of the world.
2001, the forecast reads, is heading for minus six per cent in
real term growth, while 2002 will see a minus one per cent growth.
23 ad markets will contract in 2001 as the global economy shrinks
much more in 2001/2002 than in it did in the global recession
of 1991.While the report hopes consumer confidence will pull the
sluggish ad industry out of the troughs, India and China are the
only growth markets highlighted for ad spends in Asia/Pacific
in 2002. Zenith Optimedia Asia CEO Antony Young says while the
events of 11 September did indicate negative sentiments, India
is likely to show marginal growth in the coming year.
The present survey, the first to be released after 11/9, reveals
that while travel advertising was obviously hit hard, the industry
is posed for a quick recovery. The shock of 11 September galvanised
business into addressing its pre-existing problems quickly, it
says. The first to recover from the downturn and raise their ad
investment, notes the report, will get the best media bargains:
ad space will be available at 1990s prices. While corporate earnings
may disappoint stock investors in 2002, even modest improvement
will show up in advertising, predicts Zenith.
For India, the picture is even brighter. While the second and
third quarters of the year have shown dips in ad spend growth,
signs of plateauing will be seen in the second quarter and recovery
expected from the third quarter 2002.
Overall, single digit positive growth is expected the next fiscal.
India Advertising Expenditure Summary
Major media (TV, print, radio, cinema, outdoor)
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The global scenario is not as cheerful though. 2002 is expected
to be slightly negative in North America, according to the report.
The slightly optimistic note is that ingredients for advertising
recovery become visible during the next fiscal.
World Advertising Expenditure Summary
Major media (TV, print, radio, cinema, outdoor)
Ten years ago, we endured two years of worldwide major-media contraction:
3% (in real terms) in 1991 and just under zero in 1992. Advertising
expenditure went negative in nine countries in 1990 and a further
10 in 1991.
Compound
average annual growth in worldwide advertising spend 1990-1999
was 2.4% in constant prices terms. On our present numbers, the
1999-2004 rate is 1.0%.
