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Ad spends to grow by 10.5% to reach Rs 624 billion in India DAN Report

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MUMBAI: Advertising and digital communications group, Dentsu Aegis Network, has released it its biannual global forecasts, pointing to a more positive 2018 for Asia Pacific advertising expenditure than previously expected. 

Ad-spend growth will rise from 4.0 per cent in 2017 to hit 4.5 per cent in 2018 - higher than the 4.2 per cent forecast in January 2018 and taking total investment to USD 215.95 billion. Regional events such as the 2018 World Cup that will be held in Russia, 2018 Winter Olympics South Korea, Asian Games in Indonesia and Australian federal election will play an important role in stimulating growth.

Geographically, Asia Pacific is a major growth region, contributing 41 per cent of the global increase (USD 613.5 billion). Comparatively, North America accounts for 32 per cent, Western Europe accounts for 13 per cent with Latin America at 8 per cent and Eastern Europe 5 per cent.

Dentsu Aegis Network Asia Pacific CEO Nick Waters says, “The region as a whole displays a positive outlook with increasing growth rates. We are seeing upward revisions in most key markets, with India, the Philippines and Vietnam showing high rates of growth.”

Spend in China continues to grow at pace, though driven almost entirely by the e-commerce platforms Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu. Digital remains the dominant growth area with a quarter of Asia Pacific advertising spend expected to be delivered through mobile for the first time.

Digital continues its rapid growth with online video gaining in share. This has been driven largely by the availability of high speed connectivity across the country, it is only set to grow faster. TV with a projected market share of 39.1 per cent continues to lead the media share of pie with Print at 29.3 per cent. 

Speaking on the Indian context, Dentsu Aegis Network India and Amplifi president of media brands Kartik Iyer mentions, “India’s ad spend is projected to grow at 10.5 per cent as compared to the beginning of the year when the growth was expected to be over 11 per cent. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see some forward thinking brands trying to use Video Instead of TV  in a few test and learn cases.”·

India advertising spend market is expected to grow in 2018 by 10.5 per cent to reach Rs 624 billion. Though there had been a slow start in Q1-2018, the market was picking up from March-April, fuelled by a stable recovery post demonetisation/GST/RERA buoyed by the State Elections in Meghalaya, Tripura, Nagaland and Karnataka in April. The India South Africa Match in January, Budget announcement in February, lead to continued expansion and growth of regional newspapers and television. Both social and online video will see growth for the next five years as India continues to evolve their internet, mobile, cloud audience.

In China, advertising market is predicted to grow 6.5 per cent in 2018, up from the previous forecast of 5.4 per cent, to reach RMB 630 billion of global ad investment. Growth will be driven by digital, which is forecast to command 60 per cent of advertising spend and increase by 14.8 per cent. The online giants Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent (BAT) are projected to contribute around 80 per cent of this growth, underlining their dominance of the marketplace. Mobile payments are also one to watch in the coming years as platforms such as WeChat or Alipay make cash obsolete in large parts of the country. 

The mobile device is steadily becoming our primary point of access to all digital services and content. In 2018, 52.2 per cent of all worldwide online traffic was generated through mobile phones, up from 50.3 per cent in the previous year, according to Statista. People now spend an unprecedented amount of time on their smartphones—more than five hours a day, according to some estimates. This growth in usage is largely driven by the widespread availability of high-quality digital Video. Mobile Video consumption is exploding among all age groups and content categories. 9 in 10 Social media users opt for mobile browsing, with mobile apps accounting for 70 per cent of time spent on Social media.

Reflecting this, mobile is forecast to represent a quarter of global ad spend 25.2 per cent this year exceeding the previous prediction of 24.8 per cent. With Mobile payments forecast to be more popular in the coming years, Mobile is set to continue on a positive growth trajectory a forecast 18.8 per cent in 2019. 

Traditional media spend is forecast to decline by -0.5 per cent in 2018 and -0.4 per cent in 2019. Newspapers and magazines are expected to continue their downward trend, with falls of -7.5 per cent and -6.5 per cent respectively. Radio, Out of Home and Cinema spend are expected to show steady growth.

TV spend is forecast to move back into growth in 2018 following a -0.7 per cent decline in 2017, remaining a major medium in the mix with 35.5 per cent of overall investment. 

Figure 1: Growth in global ad spend 2017-19 (% y-o-y at current prices)

2017a

2018f

2019f

GLOBAL

3.3 (3.1)

3.9 (3.6)

3.8

NORTH AMERICA

2.5 (2.5)

3.4 (3.1)

3.2

USA

2.6 (2.6)

3.4 (3.2)

3.1

CANADA

0.0 (0.0)

2.3 (1.1)

5.1

W. EUROPE

3.2 (3.3)

2.9 (2.6)

2.9

UK

4.2 (3.6)

4.2 (3.8)

4.7

GERMANY

2.3 (2.2)

2.6 (2.6)

2.9

FRANCE

2.7 (1.7)

2.5 (2.0)

2.8

ITALY

0.9 (0.9)

1.4 (1.9)

1.1

SPAIN

2.3 (1.9)

1.5 (1.4)

1.2

C&EE

8.8 (8.3)

7.8 (7.4)

6.6

RUSSIA

14.3 (12.9)

11.7 (10.4)

8.5

ASIA PACIFIC

4.0 (3.5)

4.5 (4.2)

4.4

AUSTRALIA

2.3 (2.7)

2.8 (2.9)

2.4

CHINA

6.3 (6.0)

6.5 (5.4)

6.0

INDIA

8.9 (9.6)

10.5 (12.5)

11.1

JAPAN

1.6 (1.0)

1.5 (1.6)

1.2

LATIN AMERICA

8.3 (8.1)

6.9 (8.8)

7.3

BRAZIL

2.8 (2.1)

2.3 (5.0)

2.6

Figures in brackets show our previous forecasts from Jan 2018

Figure 2: Growth in global ad spend by media, 2017-19 (% y-o-y at current prices)

2017a

2018f

2019f

TELEVISION

-0.7 (-0.9)

1.2 (0.5)

1.1

NEWSPAPERS

-9.4 (-9.0)

-7.5 (-7.9)

-7.4

MAGAZINES

-7.6 (-7.2)

-6.5 (-5.9)

-6.4

RADIO

1.2 (0.5)

2.0 (1.3)

1.2

CINEMA

6.1 (4.8)

5.9 (4.6)

5.2

OOH

2.6 (3.0)

2.2 (2.4)

2.1

DIGITAL

15.2 (15.0)

12.6 (12.6)

11.3

Figures in brackets show our previous forecasts from Jan 2018

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