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Madison revises ad forecast following dip in TV AdEx

Major reason for the dip is drop faced in the quarter1 because of the NTO order

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MUMBAI: The Pitch Madison Advertising Outlook Report 2019 has revised its forecast for ADEX 2019 downwards, mainly due to a drop in TV Adex in Quarter1, 2019. According to the Original Report, released in February 2019 Adex was forecast to grow by 16. 4 per cent, but the agency has revised it downwards now to 13.4 per cent. By medium, the revised forecast stands as follows:

 

Original

Revised

Medium

Original Growth Forecast 2019 (%)

Original Share of Media

(%)

Revised Growth Forecast 2019 (%)

Revised Share of Media

(%)

Television

18.0

39.0

11.2

38.0

Print

5.0

29.0

5.0

30.0

Digital

33.4

22.0

33.4

23.0

Radio

12.0

3.0

12.0

3.5

Outdoor

11.4

5.0

5.0

5.0

Cinema

30.0

1.5

30.0

1.5

TOTAL

16.4

100.0

13.4

100.0

Whilst there is no change in the growth forecast for digital, radio and cinema, there is a downward revision for television and outdoor, which has led to an overall downward forecast of Adex for 2019.

The major reason for the drop in television Adex is the drop faced in the first quarter (January – March 2019), because of the NTO order, which caused chaos in the television market and led BARC to issue an advisory, not to use Ratings because of major changes in availability of channels.

Another major reason that resulted in the drop in television Adex was the ill-fated decision of major networks to remove their free-to-air (FTA) channels from DD Free Dish. This led to a loss of 275 GRPs per week in the Hindi GEC + movies market. New FTA channels that emerged could not make up the viewership enjoyed by the established FTA channels like Zee Anmol, Star Utsav, Star Bharat, Sony Pal, Colors Rishtey, etc. A few new FTA channels did emerge like Dangal, Enter 10, etc. but these could not make up the GRP loss.

As a result, for the first time in many years the first quarter of 2019 saw a de-growth of -5 per cent in television Adex. In quarter 2, TV Adex recovered on the back of Parliamentary Elections, IPL and World Cup. We expect quarter 3 also to be reasonably strong on the back of the festive season, but we expect a softening in quarter 4.

The Pitch Madison Advertising Outlook Revised Forecast by Media is as follows:

Rs in Crores

Medium

Original Forecast 2019

Revised Forecast 2019

Television

27649

26050

Print

20429

20429

Digital

15612

15612

Radio

2401

2401

Outdoor

3750

3533

Cinema

1047

1047

TOTAL

70888

69073

Madison World chairman Sam Balsara says, “It appears that the Consumer is looking for reasons to not spend or delay his spending. At a time like this Advertisers should not lose faith in Advertising, and use it aggressively but effectively to protect their Share.”

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