What can we expect from the year 2001? Clear legislative direction from the government? An advertising upsurge? More niche channels? The broadband explosion?

2001. If the government keeps its commitment, we should have a convergence law by mid to late this year. Unfortunately, governments have in the past not respected their promises and broadcasting regulation has not seen the light of day for four years despite a court ruling that this should be done. What may totally slow down things is lack of agreement amongst the various ministries and the parliamentary sub-committee which will review the recommendations on the convergence law. On current form, the government will require to put all its skills to work if it wants a convergence bill passed within 2001. Mr Vajpayee, are you listening?

indiantelevision.com believes that by late this year we will find out whether India enters the arena of ku-band DTH broadcasting. A lot of hype has been created around the government's initiatives on this front, but the fact is that the ban on sale of Ku-band reception equipment has not been lifted completely, and there has been no follow-up on the guidelines that have been issued. The government has been refusing to retract the 20 per cent broadcasting equity cap and hence DTH has at this stage found few takers. Star TV has been tomtomming its service but the fact is that it will have to work a miracle to be the first to launch.
Zee TV, Sterling, Mittals, have also expressed interest but it's unlikely that they will be in a position to cobble together enough resources for their offerings.
DD's DTH looks like a long shot going by how it performed the last time around with Measat. Other players like VSNL, DoT, MTNL will examine the possibility but its quite unlikely that they will charge ahead with their ventures full scale. As in the words of Reliance Entertainment vice-chairman Amit Khanna, Ku-band DTH clearance is coming too late in the day and is irrelevant in India.

Cable over Internet access will make further in roads into consumer homes as bandwidth prices shrink. It will find more consumers in the institutional segment. But dial-up access will also become cheaper. Amongst the MSOs, Hathway will continue to fight aggressively in the marketplace with the might of Star TV behind it. Cable TV penetration will grow about 15 per cent in the coming year as will advertising which will notch up more than 40 per cent growth. A surprise package will be the spread of Sun TV's Sumangala Cable Vision, and the revival of Siticable towards the fag end of the year. Broadband will continue to progress with a limp in the current year.

There will be a relative slow down in the number of channels that will launch in the coming year. The existing groups will focus on consolidation and Zee TV will start showing signs of recovery before mid this year as it rolls out new shows under the direct direction of Chandra. KBC's ratings (it will continue to hog the limelight) will wane over time, but the ratings of other Star Plus shows will climb. Sony will agglomerate audiences for its Govinda game show in its early stages after launch but the numbers will thin down to an optimum level within two months.

Broadcasting ad revenues will continue on the slow growth path in the coming year and channels will really feel the crunch. The year ahead will see a couple of closure or near death encounters amongst the channels. The IPO fever amongst media wannabes will once again rise around mid this year, post the Union budget.


Read more on the Year 2000 from
Major developments in television
Programmers Pick
The Cable TV Front
A broadcasting legislation perspective
The stockmarket angle