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It's
that time of year, for the annual tea leaf-reading ritual,
as the media pundits herald a new round of trends.
Looking
back, 2007 was an unusual year. It held much promise for media
pundits, poised as it was, on the back of an unparalleled
economic boom and a raging bull market. The bull was expected
to take a breather and consolidate before a fresh charge and
2007 was to be the "Year of Consolidation" for the
financial markets.
The
Media market was to pick up the baton and 2007 was billed
as THE year as predictions flew thick and fast (yours truly
was guilty of it too!). Almost all of them were, in one way
or the other linked to the broadcast business - as the driver,
the catalyst, the victim, the recipient.
Lots
of action was predicted and it did deliver, albeit differently.
The bull confounded experts and continued to charge, clocking
another year of impressive growth.
What
was 2007 for the media market? With the benefit of hindsight,
let's look at some of the popular predictions
Year
of Cricket? - Starting with the World Cup, that turned
out to be a fiasco, cricket proved to be a damp squib, leading
many an advertiser to rue misplaced faith and rush back to
the time tested favourites and mainstream entertainment.
Year
of Broadcast Erosion & GEC demise? - Probably the
strongest and most confident predictions were about the rapid
erosion in TV viewing and flight to other media. GEC as a
genre held firm as the dominant choice during the year as
Zee grew rapidly and consolidated on the gains. Broadcast
viewing across genres moved northwards as the viewing experience
expanded.
Year
of Consumer? - Besides indirect consumer voice through
content viewership, consumer empowerment in a definitive,
direct way was to be created on a large scale by way of the
addressable Cas systems.
After starting with much fanfare and anticipation in a limited
"manageable" area, it remained confined there as
ill equipped operators and logistical inadequacies resulted
in thousands of homes blanking out on their favourite content
at the stroke of midnight on 31st December 2006.
Year
of Launches? - The "buzz" in the market was
entirely around the highly awaited "new additions"
across the constituents of the industry. With the enticing
promise of taking the TV experience to the next level. A slew
of channels on the content side that many believed would reorganize
the content genre structure. New broadcast delivery platforms
that offered to "liberate" the consumer. Alternative
media.
Fact: The local cablewallah still rings my doorbell each month.
General entertainment still rules the roost.
Year
of measurement? The lowest profile, yet most influential
stakeholder in the industry was expected to see a major overhaul
during the year. TAM's expanded peoplemeter system was to
be a generation leap from a four-year-old limited area, limited
scope system, to a cutting edge, expansive full scale one.
With capabilities ranging from handling new technologies and
platforms, expansive coverage, deeper understanding of viewer
segments and viewing behaviour etc. The new panel was a step
upgrade in coverage terms. The elite panel too promised much
and delivered little as it struggled with limited scope and
the hangover of existing methodologies.
SO
WHAT WAS 2007 REALLY?
It was the year of media consolidation.
TV established its rightful claim, as the medium for the nation.
The resurgence of TV and its ability to thrive even amid an
onslaught of new and fragmenting media. Other traditional
and new media alike (including FM radio, Internet, Mobile)
failed to live up to the hype and proceeded to occupy their
place in the hierarchy.
It
was the year when the broadcast industry took its seminal
step towards maturity and financial viability in the form
of a surcharge. It started of as a unified cry to bring attention
to the broadcast industry's frustrations. Concern against
gross under valuation and runaway costs that threaten TV's
vulnerable ad-supported framework.
It
was the 20-20 year
Not just in terms of the 20-20 format reviving depleting consumer
interest in cricket, but to a greater extent, it brought to
the fore a new formula of success based on changing audience
preferences - short, sleek, quick, entertaining.
WHAT WILL BE THE MEDIA INDUSTRY'S SEMINAL MOMENTS IN 2008?
Nothing
can kill this much desired, most maligned, most adored, advertising
vehicle - not dropping rates, not under valuation, not an
overcrowded market, not insufficient measurement, not print,
not mobile, not the Internet.
Genre
Consolidation
The much spoken about deluge of launches will unfold in the
coming months, leading to an expansion in viewing experience
and preferences, rather than fragmentation as is widely predicted.
However, as competition enters the market, time, resources
and overall value will shift, taking the broadcast industry
rapidly towards the inflection point where consolidation becomes
inevitable.
Spiraled
out costs, below par returns and maturing viewer preferences
would force intra genre consolidation with an alpha duo in
the lead and a following pack.
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