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It
was one piece of news that cable TV networks were
waiting to hear for long, too long in actual fact!
Buffeted
by potential competition from direct-to-home (DTH)
operators, the timing of the Delhi High Court ruling
that has ordered the government to enforce the rollout
of conditional access system (CAS) in India within
four weeks couldn't have been more crucial. Tata Sky
is preparing to launch in June and Dish TV, at present
the only existing private sector DTH service provider,
is expected to sort out programming contracts with
Star India and SET Discovery by then.
Cable
TV can take DTH head on with its digital service.
It has the firepower to do so, having built a rich
battery of last mile operators (LMOs) who have serviced
consumers over the years.
Firstly,
it can cobble together more channels than DTH can
offer at the initial stage when the consumer is making
the shift from analogue to digital. Already, some
MSOs are making available a little under 150 TV channels.
DTH operators, on the other hand, are limited by transponder
space on satellite and can only ramp up under MPEG-4
compression technology.
Second,
cable TV can bundle broadband and, with preparation
in future, telephony services.
Third,
it can develop interactive features with its fibre
network.
Fourth,
it has manpower in place which can be quickly energised
to push digital set-top boxes (STBs).
Sure,
MSOs and independent operators would have preferred
the courts to have come up with the same verdict much
earlier, after the government withdrew CAS in 2004.
That would have given them a first mover advantage
with a considerable time lag before DTH could kickstart
operations.
But
there was one issue which had still to be sorted out
for an effective rollout: LMOs felt insecure and did
not back the rollout of digital cable. With competition
from DTH looming large, they now have the support
of their franchisee operators.
But
what if the verdict on CAS had come after Tata Sky's
launch and Dish TV's content contracts had been stitched
with Star and Sony? Cable TV operators would have
been able to fight against DTH with two weapons in
their armoury - analogue cable and voluntary digitalisation.
On analogue cable, operators have the flexibility
of dropping subscription fees drastically. With a
price warrior in place through analogue service, digital
cable could offer an alternate choice to consumers
to combat DTH head on. On the flip side, the digital
service would still remain unaddressable while DTH
could provide consumers the choice of selecting channels
and packages they want to pay for.
Under
CAS, cable operators do not have the flexibility of
delivering pay channels on their analogue network.
Consumers will have to select between DTH and digital
cable for receiving these channels. They will, in
other words, have to buy either a DTH or a cable TV
set-top box.
But
delaying the direct knock-to-knock face-off between
cable and DTH operators hardly serves any purpose.
The business model for MSOs and independent operators
can only get worse if no CAS is in place. Because
the way out to stop DTH from invading into cable territory
without a properly tiered and price-packaged digital
service would have been possible only through rate
drops. While LMOs would have been unaffected, the
MSOs would have felt the pinch.
Retooling
business strategies and organising the sector is in
the commercial interest of the cable operators. The
hour has come to change the mindset and bring in quality
and service-oriented practices. It will be meaningless
to wish away competition from DTH and later IPTV providers.
Several
networks already have a stockpile of digital STBs.
So far, they have been unable to place these boxes
in consumer homes. Even Hathway Cable & Datacom,
the more aggressive of the digital cable TV players,
claims it has managed to distribute just 40,000 boxes.
It would do better for operators to take a more positive
view: that with CAS, digitalisation, either through
cable or DTH or IPTV, would move faster.
After
all, the market is too big and diverse for any single
player to cover it all.
Ensuring
a ramp up in supply of boxes, erecting a solid encryption
system, and having a sound billing mechanism should
be the focus areas. Also, it is crucial for operators
to find more, better and premium content which can
lure customers. They will also have to work out rental
schemes and low up-front charges to subsidise the
boxes in order to stay competitive with DTH.
Another
hard lesson to be learnt from this is that investments
on old technologies won't help. For those who have
put their money on analogue STBs, the chances of surviving
the battle look grim. Yes, there is a market for free-to-air
analogue service. But no, not for analogue STBs as
that will limit the channel offerings at a time when
supply is growing rapidly.
There
will be competitive pressure for cable operators to
upgrade their networks and services. Territorial monopolies
will end and cable operators will also have to fight
amongst themselves for retaining or acquiring subscribers.
DTH,
of course, retains one advantage. It has a national
footprint while CAS is limited to the four metros
in the first phase. This will give DTH economies of
scale, but then it will still face the big hurdle
of drawing in consumers to buy a box in the non-CAS
areas.
By
bringing in CAS, the MSOs realise the entire business
model changes in favour of them. Gaining control over
the entire value chain across the network and having
an addressable system will pump up valuation of cable
companies and draw in global investors.
The
green signal on CAS couldn't have come at a riper
time. If there is any year which can drive digitalisation
forward, this is it. In June-July, ESPN Star Sports
will show live the football World Cup. The other key
properties on the roster are ICC cricket Champions
Trophy in September and the cricket World Cup early
2007 (both events on Sony).
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