AAP gains from both INC and BJP in Delhi polls, hung assembly likely; Kejriwal most preferred CM candidate : ABP News-Nielsen survey
New Delhi 25th Oct 2013: Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is likely to gain from both the Indian National Congress (INC) and Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) in the upcoming Delhi polls. According to the opinion poll conducted by ABP News and Nielsen, AAP is likely to bag around 18 seats. BJP is likely to emerge as the single largest party surpassing the incumbent Congress in the assembly polls with around 28 seats and a vote share of about 34 per cent.
The poll predicts Congress is likely to get 22 seats in the 70-member assembly. AAP is seen gaining with a vote share of about 15 per cent from the Congress and the BJP. Other parties and Independents are likely to manage only two seats in the upcoming Delhi polls.
According to the survey, with Kejriwal's AAP gaining momentum it has become a three-corner contest, where BJP has a slight edge. The scenario emerging with the survey could change once the candidates are announced.
Even more good news for the BJP would have emerged if they didn’t have AAP as their competitor they would have gained another 15 per cent share from the Congress displaying them as the clear winner.
According to the ABP News-Nielsen survey, there is a reduction in the loyalist base for both Congress and BJP in the last 2 months, resulting in a gain for Arvind Kejriwal's AAP.
Kejriwal most preferred CM candidate for Delhi
According to the ABP News-Nielsen survey, around 32 per cent of respondent surveyed prefer Arvind Kejriwal as the Chief Minister of Delhi, followed by equal split for Vijay Goel and Sheila Dikshit. The scores have improved for Arvind Kejriwal as a leading candidate for CM from 24 per cent in August 2013 to 32 per cent in October 2013. There is an increase for Shiela Dikshit from 22 per cent in August 2013 to 27 per cent in October 2013.Though the survey predicts mariginal increase in score of BJP's Vijay Goel who gets 27 per cent in 2013.
According to the ABP News-Nielsen survey, the performance of current chief minister Sheila Dikshit has been rated by the younger voter (18-23 years) with a mean score of 2.98. The performance continues to be below average.
Corruption, inflations dents Congress’ prospects
The survey reveals that at an overall level, Corruption and Price rise are the main issue for change in voting intention from INC to BJP. Price rise is a major influencer for female respondent.
The main reason for voting for a particular party has different dimensions:
AAP is seen as a party that can bring down corruption;
BJP is seen as a party that can control inflation
INC is seen as a party that can maintain law and order.
Also one of the reasons for switch from both INC and BJP towards AAP is due to preference for the leader of the party, especially amongst the youngsters in Delhi.
65 per cent do not want Congress back
According to the survey, about 2/3rd of respondent surveyed (65%) do not want to give another chance to incumbent Congress government to govern Delhi. 40% of the respondents have rated State government's performance as below average with a mean score of 2.74
The complete field work was carried out between 9th to 12th October 2013 for ABP News-Nielsen survey. Around 4000 respondents were surveyed. The target respondent was male/female who is an eligible voter with age 18 years & above and their name registered in the voter's list.