Television

TV subs rev may expand to Rs 907 bn by '21 at 11.6% CAGR: PwC

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MUMBAI: India?s entertainment and media sector is expected to expand steadily over the next four years as per PwC?s Global entertainment and media outlook 2017-2021. The industry is expected to exceed Rs 2910 billion by 2021 increasing at compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.5% between 2017 and 2021.

? Television will grow at an overall CAGR of over 11.4% during 2017-21, with subscription TV households to reach 16.7 Cr by 2021. 

? Despite fewer screens and low admission prices, India to be the third largest Cinema market in the world by 2021 with a double digit CAGR of 10.4% over the Outlook period.

? Unlike the Global trend, Indian newspaper industry to showcase a positive growth rate of 1.1% CAGR during 2017-2021.

? Internet advertising to register the fastest growth as compared to other advertising platforms at a CAGR of 18.6%.

PwC India partner & leader - entertainment & media Frank D?Souza comments: ?Unlike the global economy, which will see a shrinking contribution from the Entertainment and Media sector over the Outlook period, in India the sector?s growth rate will outpace the overall GDP growth rate. Being a relatively under-developed market in terms of per capita spend on entertainment and media, will allow India to grow at 10.57% over the next five years to an overall size of INR 290,539 Cr. Also, being the least digitised market, will allow the traditional media to grow without being disrupted by digital competition. Whereas one may be tempted to conclude that India?s growth in this sector is divergent from the world?s, it will do well for Indian players to keep their eyes on changing landscape globally and prepare for its eventual impact on the Indian market.?

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Key highlights of the report:

Television: TV Subscription revenues are expected to grow from INR 52,755 Cr in 2016 to INR 90,713 Cr in 2021 at a CAGR of 11.6%. Though subscriber numbers are still growing, explosive growth levels of the recent past will not be replicated in the future. The cable market is approaching a saturation point but will still account for over 55% of the total pay-TV market in 2021. In terms of advertising, TV will continue to hold the larger share of the pie from INR 21,874 Cr in 2016 to INR 37,315 Cr in 2021, even though Internet advertising is expected to growth a much faster rate of 18.6% as opposed to TV advertising at 11.1% from 2017-2021.

Cinema: India?s cinema sector is expected to experience strong growth throughout the forecast period. Box office revenue will rise from INR 10,957 Cr in 2016 to INR 18,047 Cr in 2021, at a healthy CAGR of 10.4%. Admissions will rise from an estimated 200 Cr in 2016 to 230 Cr in 2021 (at a CAGR of 2.4%) and ticket prices will rise at a CAGR of 7.9% in the same period. This is one of the few major cinema markets in which 100% digitisation of screens has not yet been achieved ? and it is not expected to occur over the forecast period. 

Publishing: Publishing in India is expected to grow from INR 38,601 Cr in 2016 to INR 44,391 Cr in 2021 at a CAGR of 3.1%. Book publishing is projected to grow at 6.1% CAGR over 2017-2021 whereas Magazines are expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.3% for the same period. The Indian newspaper industry continues to grow from INR 23,161 Cr in 2016 to INR 24,447 Cr in 2021, but the growth rate is tailing off as the effects of digital disruption begin to be felt in a market that had long enjoyed print expansion. 

Internet: In terms of Internet advertising revenue, India is ranked eighth in the Asia Pacific region. One reason for the immature online ad market is the lack of Internet access among Indians ? fixed broadband penetration remains low at just 6.9% in 2016. Today, mobile Internet advertising only comprises 27.6% of total online spending, marking a clear gap between Indians with mobile access and brands reaching out to the mobile audience.  India?s internet video segment has produced revenues of INR 560 Cr in 2016 and will grow at 22.4% CAGR to reach a new high of INR 1540 Cr in 2021. Transactional video-on-demand will account for over 61% of total Internet video revenues in 2021, with many households not wanting to commit to the regular payments of subscription video-on-demand.

Major digital tipping-points are occurring or in prospect across all segments globally?

? Internet advertising now generates more revenue than TV advertising globally. In 2016 an important tipping point was reached in the global advertising industry, with revenue from Internet advertising exceeding that generated by TV advertising for the first time. That lead, thanks to the rapid growth of mobile ad revenues in particular, is set to increase significantly in the next five years. 

? Internet video revenues will overtake physical home video in 2017. The Internet video segment has expanded rapidly in recent years, and will overtake the physical home video market for the first time in 2017. Internet video revenues are projected to grow at a CAGR of 11.6% to reach USD 36.7 bn (INR 236,111 Cr) in 2021, while the terminally declining market for DVDs and Blu rays will have fallen to USD 13.9 bn (INR 89,426 Cr). Demand has shifted towards the more immediate and convenient video-on-demand (VOD) market, with content accessible via a wide range of connected devices allowing consumers to view when and where they desire. 

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? Global newspaper circulation revenue overtook global advertising revenue in 2016.  While newspaper circulation revenue has been on a downward trajectory since 2015, publishers have had the useful lever of cover price rises to partly offset the rapid fall in units. However, the year-on-year falls in newspaper advertising revenue have been more pronounced - reflected in the overall de-growth in the newspaper segment.

? Virtual reality video revenue will exceed interactive application/gaming revenue in 2019. The consumer virtual reality (VR) content market will grow at a CAGR of 77.0% over the forecast period to be worth USD 15.1bn (INR 97,147 Cr) by 2021. Of this, USD 8.0bn (INR 51,468 Cr) will be spending on VR video (rising at a CAGR of 91.2%), surpassing interactive experiences and games in 2019. This is one segment to look out for in the future.

? Smartphone traffic will exceed fixed broadband data traffic in 2020. Although mobile usage is a key driver of growth in overall data traffic, fixed broadband will continue to account for the majority of data traffic in the 19 markets for which we have developed detailed forecasts. Many consumers still prefer to access data-heavy content ? notably high-quality video ? via fixed broadband rather than their mobile device. But the shift towards the smartphone will continue.

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