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Ormax Media predicts bumper opening for Gulaal, modest for Pratha

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MUMBAI: The media research and consulting firm, Ormax Media, has predicted a bumper opening for Star Plus’ Gulaal and a modest opening for Colors’ Pratha.

As per Ormax’s awareness tracking product Showbuzz, Star Plus’ new fiction show Gulaal, which is launching today at 9 pm, is likely to average about 4.8-5.2 TVR in its first week.

 

The company has noted two primary reasons for such high viewership numbers. Firstly, Gulaal is replacing Bidaai, and hence has a slot with ready audiences waiting for it. Secondly, the awareness scores for Gulaal have been quite healthy, touching 21 per cent ‘Unaided Awareness‘ and 84 per cent ‘Total Awareness‘ on the Friday before launch.

Meanwhile, on Colors, Rishton Se Badi Pratha is likely to open at an average first week TVR of about 1.9. Ormax said that the programme’s awareness scores were exceptionally good, at 36 per cent ‘Unaided‘ and 91 per cent ‘Total Awareness‘ on Friday. However, weak viewer base for Colors in the 7.30 pm slot would come in the way of a higher opening.

 

The show is replacing Thoda Hai Bas Thode Ki Zaroorat Hai, a 1-TVR show. Pratha seems set to double the slot performance because of its successful campaign.

Showbuzz tracks awareness of new programmes across six markets. Data over the last 20 months has been used to create a predictive model for fiction shows. The model predicts the opening week reach of the launches, which can then be used to arrive at indicative TVR, assuming a certain level of content.

 

The model takes into account the marketing buzz created by the show, the performance of the slot, competitive scenario and overall channel performance. Ormax claims that the error margins have been less than 15 per cent in most predictions done using the model so far.

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