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Emerging markets lead media inflation: Lodestar Universal

MUMBAI: As the world struggles to find its footing, slowly dragging itself out of the immense ravine of recession, globally advertisers continue to display caution and thrift, waiting for clear signs that they survived the wreckage.


Lodestar Universal India has launched its global study ‘Magna Inflation Update‘ on the media pricing outlook for 2010-2011 globally.


The study aims to help advertisers to understand the inflation expectations at a global level and also offers medium level insights across 48 key countries.


Countries that have been fortunate enough to avoid a prolonged downturn have already begun to see optimism in the turn that the media industry has taken. The countries that have been the hardest hit from this recession have actually been the most developed and mature industrialized nations. 
 
Average rates of inflation within Asia are moderate. Generally speaking, while the more developed nations are seeing flat to mild inflation (and in the case of Japan, even some significant deflation), emerging Southeast Asian nations are expecting higher levels of inflation on average.


India inflation is projected at nine per cent for 2010; this is in the upper mid band when it is compared to the other countries like UK, Japan (looking at a deflation) and economies like Philippines, South Africa and Turkey moving forward at double digits.


Predictably, emerging markets are expected to increase media inflation by a considerable degree than developed markets. Many of the emerging markets have faced historically high rates of inflation causing expectations to remain high, while other emerging economies have only been dimly affected by the economic crisis and rebounded considerably quickly. The developed markets, on the other hand, have suffered the most prolonged effects of the recession and with already mature media markets, have held onto the hope that the coming year will bring a recovery to the market and to pricing.


China shows one of the highest inflation in this year due to significant changes in regulations across media which is expected to stabilise by 2011. In contrast, India and some other markets anticpate a much higher inflation rate as the markets stabilise and pricing is driven more by a demand supply model.
 
Brings to India an opportune global study ‘Magna Inflation Update on the the media pricing outlook for 2010-2011 globally. Not only does it help advertisers to understand the inflation expectations at a global level, it also offers medium level insights across 48 key countries (Magna is Interpublic Group‘s Insights and Forecasts Unit)


Countries that have been fortunate enough to avoid a prolonged downturn have already begun to see optimism in the turn that the media industry has taken. The countries that have been the hardest hit from this recession have actually been the most developed and mature industrialized nations, among them the U.S., the U.K., and Japan.


Australia, propelled by the large influence of its Asian neighbors and its stimulus package, has not seen as significant of an impact as comparable countries and expects to maintain its media pricing in line with general market inflation.


Interestingly, there is no singular global trend unlike in the case of overall media investments as showcased in our previous release - Magna Global 2010 Advertising Forecast. Each market demonstrates inflation rates based on internal dynamics showing that the pricing trends are relatively independent of the broader economic parameters.


While average rates of inflation within Asia are moderate, the difference between the countries is marked. Generally speaking, while the more developed nations are seeing flat to mild inflation (and in the case of Japan, even some significant deflation), emerging Southeast Asian nations are expecting higher levels of inflation on average.
India Inflation is projected at 9% for 2010; this is in the upper mid band when we compare to the other countries with developed nations like UK, Japan looking at a deflation and economies like Philippines, South Africa and Turkey moving forward at double digits.


Predictably, emerging markets are expected to increase media inflation by a considerable degree than developed markets. Many of the emerging markets have faced historically high rates of inflation causing expectations to remain high, while other emerging economies have only been dimly affected by the economic crisis and rebounded considerably quickly. The developed markets, on the other hand, have suffered the most prolonged effects of the recession and with already mature media markets, have held onto the hope that the coming year will bring a recovery to the market and to pricing. 
 
China shows one of the highest inflation in this year due to significant changes in regulations across media which is expected to stabilise by 2011. In contrast India and some other markets anticpate a much higher inflation rate as the markets stabilise and pricing is driven more by a demand supply model.


A look at the Medium wise picture also shows interesting trends. Television, the key reach medium across most markets, shows double digit inflation for many emerging markets, driving up the costs of communication on the whole. Newspapers on the other hand, do not have such a steady trend, showing high inflation levels only in select markets. Internet, the other game changer also has wide variations - the BRIC markets have high increases except for Brazil, while established economies hold steadier.


The Indian context shows significant increases across TV, newspapers and the Internet, the key media mix driving most advertisers. Increasing pressure on advertisers thus, to not just match but beat inflation to drive value from their ad spends.


The study states that the challenge lies more in the fragmentation which splits up audience media consumption rather than the actual price increases unlike other countries. This then calls for sharper planning solutions which allow for better targeting and focused media solutions.


The trend challenges media owners as well - pressure to hold prices despite growing acquisition and running costs. Increasingly, this will lead to offering multi solutions by mega media brands which will gradually buy into specific audiences and market to them across media contact points. Partnering the client‘s quest for consumers would allow better monetization and a sharper content approach benefitting them in the long run.
 

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