MUMBAI: A recent study by Percept Media forecasts a brighter festive season for TV and newspaper media.
The study forecasts a good growth of 9 per cent in festive advertising spends as compared to last year.
The festive marks the highest revenue period for Indian media. Over the years the contribution of the festive period to full year media revenue has reduced – yet it still continues to be the best quarter of the year, contributing about 30 per cent of annual revenues.
The study forecasts signs of a healthy growth during the 13 weeks of festivity with volume growth of 15 per cent in newspapers and 18 per cent in television. The value growth is forecasted to be 9 per cent, considering the different categories driving TV growth and tier 2 towns leading growth in print media.
The Study compared the TV time and Print Ad space consumption for 2010 v/s 2011. Of the 13 weeks – actual data for 9 weeks is already released by Nielsen Ad Ex, which – alongwith Industry Information on Time and Space availability on TV and Print Media - was the basis for this detailed analysis forecast. The study covered Display, Financial and FD categories only for Print.
Different Categories drive TV & Print
Even during festive period the top 10 categories for TV and print are very different – with TV having a lot more of FMCG while education, independent retailers and real estate are the mainstay for print. Across both print & TV, independent retailers, four wheelers & cell phones categories are found to be in the top slots.
METROS V/S CITIES: Tier 2 towns & Niche/Speciality channels leading the growth
Contrary to popular belief, major TV growth is expected through news, movies, regional & niche/speciality channels. Sports as a genre has de-grown over the last year
In the case of print, metro-based editions are stagnating while the regional papers and editions in smaller markets are showing a big growth in space consumption. Mysore, Madurai, Coimbatore, Kozhikode, Kota, Ludhiana, Raipur, Jabalpur are some of the markets outside metro cities which are showing higher growth (for Print).
PRINT SPACE USAGE
A deeper dive shows that the main edition advertising in metros is showing a dip of 2 per cent which is made up by the growth in the tier II markets. Smaller market show robust growth across main editions and city supplements. The revenues from main editions are expected to have fallen even more as most major newspapers sensed this and offered special schemes for full page advertising – which would have lowered the yield
OTHER MEDIA
Radio registers a growth of 35 per cent in advertising minutes during festive viz-a-viz non-festive months. Based on industry Sources, however, YOY no growth is forecasted for radio medium. Similarly, outdoor is forecast to remain at the same levels as last year.
LIFE AFTER FESTIVE SEASON
Marketers, hoping for a big festive season, have made a lot more offers during this critical buying period this year. The sentiment after the festive season is driven more by ground reality and, hence, reflects the true situation. It is seen that immediately after the festive high, advertising take a dip. Television, in 2010 took a 10 per cent dip and print a massive 41 per cent fall.
Post Diwali, the market sentiment this year looks a little bleak. A drop in print main issue advertising doesn’t augur well for the print industry.
Says Shripad Kulkarni, CEO – Percept‘s Media AOR Company Allied Media: " Cricket had sucked in major budgets on TV and the pre festive period did scare the print industry – with a big dip in adspends in the months of June – July this year. Advertisers, however, have come back on to Print for festive period. The extra emphasis on city supplements and on weekends suggests a finetuned ‘Last mile’ role on the path to purchase of consumers – given to newspapers given by the marketing Industry. Metros are still big markets but growth here is slowing down and smaller markets are growing faster for most categories – so more emphasis on regional media beyond metros was only expected and will continue to gather momentum. As of now, it looks like the period after festive may play a spoilsport. But who knows – one of the sunsrise industries (and there are many) may suddenly revv up and bring some cheer to the media."
