Indiantelevision.com Team

(4 May 2009 9:10 pm)

MUMBAI: Publicis Groupe-owned media buying firm ZenithOptimedia has predicted a moderate 6.4 per cent advertising spend growth in the calendar year 2009, contradicting a more pessimistic view of 4.7 per cent growth forecast by GroupM, or an optimistic 12.5 per cent CAGR estimate by KPMG.

Though media observers have expressed concern over a deeper impact on the sector due to a global downturn, the ZenithOptimedia report forecast a more healthy growth across print, television, internet, radio, cinema and outdoor media put together.

The Indian media advertising market will reach a total of Rs 227.58 billion in 2009 compared to Rs 213.80 billion in 2008.

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"We believe that the ad growth in the Indian media industry will be healthy, and it will remain among the top three along with China and Poland," ZenithOptimedia MD west and south Pavan Chandra told Indiantelevision.com.

Chandra, however, accepted that a clearer picture would emerge in the next report due after six months.

As per the report, the ad spend on television sector is set to grow at 9.4 per cent to touch Rs 93.02 billion in 2009, up from Rs 85.02 billion in 2008. This, however, is at a much slower pace than the 16 per cent ad growth achieved in 2008 over the year-earlier period. GroupM had predicted a slower growth at 7 per cent growth for the TV sector.

ZenithOptimedia believes the growth curve will be on an upswing in the following years. Ad spend on television will be Rs 104.17 billion in 2010 and Rs 120.84 in 2011, as the overall media sector gets a push (See Table).

Newspapers, hurt the most, will see a marginal ad growth of 1.19 per cent to reach Rs 92.12 billion in 2009, as against Rs 91.02 billion a year ago. This segment had grown furiously by 20.66 per cent in 2008 over the earlier-year period. GroupM, on the other hand, had forecast a negative growth of 2 per cent during the calendar year 2009 for the newspaper sector.

Media agencies see the radio sector growing above double digits, but at lower speeds. According to ZenithOptimedia, radio will still be able to post an ad growth of 16.65 per cent to Rs 7.54 billion in 2009, compared to a 23.45 per cent in 2008 over the year-ago period. GroupM's prediction for the radio sector was 15 per cent in 2009, down from an earlier 49 per cent breakneck speed.

In other categories, cinema sector will manage less than one per cent ad growth to Rs 1.46 billion as against Rs 1.45 billion, while outdoor will post a growth in ad spend by 6.95 per cent during 2009 to Rs 15.96 billion. The Internet sector will see a whopping 30 per cent growth in ad spend, or Rs 4.55 billion, in 2009, according to ZenithOptimedia.

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