Indiantelevision.com Team

(29 July 2006 5:00 pm)

MUMBAI: Euro RSCG has developed the Predictameter, a forecasting tool that provides insights into any given category. They have used this tool to predict the fate of 18 Bollywood movies to be released later this year.

The first attempt at measuring the influence of marketing and buzz on the fate of a film, the Euro RSCG Bollywood Predictameter bases its results on a research conducted in four markets mainly Mumbai, Delhi, Lucknow and Bangalore administered across 1200 respondents. The respondents were first exposed to critical information about each movie before their opinions were recorded, informs an official release.

Critical to the science of predicting the future are a set of people who Euro RSCG call "Prosumers". Prosumers are a special group of customers - they are more knowledgeable in a given category, they love new products, they search for the best value products and they are very demanding. But most of all, Prosumers love sharing their knowledge and their opinions with everyone who cares to listen, adds the release.

According to the Euro RSCG Bollywood Predictameter; Munnabhai is slated to be the most successful movie of the year. Close to 61 per cent of the Prosumers indicated that Munna and Circuit would earn superhit status for the movie. With 36 per cent of Prosumers indicating that Kabhie Alvida Na Kehna would be a superhit; it came in a distant second to Munnabhai.

Last weekend, the Prosumers had given a thumbs up to the Emraan Hashmi starrer The Killer and have almost written off the mega-star cast of Yun Hota To Kya Hota. 64 per cent of the Prosumers believe that The Killer is going to be a hit. A rocking music score and an impressive star cast are the reasons that have driven their verdict.

Close to 57 per cent of the Prosumers have indicated that both Don and Dhoom 2 are going to be stupendous flops. The novelty value for the products does not exist at all, according to the Prosumers. However, consumer opinion indicates that both Don and Dhoom 2 will be average hits.

In addition, it looks like the Othello remake Omkara seems headed for disaster as close to 57 per cent of the Prosumers believe it is going to flop at the box office. Quite funny, since the movie has been rated very highly by the Prosumers on star value as well as director appeal.

The new Rajshri venture, Vivaah slated for November starring Shahid Kapur does not have enough traction within the Prosumers as 61 per cent have no opinion about the movie. And the other Sanju-Arshad caper, Anthony Kaun Hai will not really get the cash registers ringing as 57 per cent believe it will be an average grosser.

Finally, the alleged Aishwarya-Abhishek affair seems to have not done enough to save Umrao Jaan. For all its publicity hype, close to 57 per cent of the Prosumers believe its going to flop miserably. And even Mallika's sex quotient will not be able to save her next comedy with Rahul Bose Pyaar Ke Side Effects.

Bollywood successes are increasingly becoming a function of marketing as against purely the quality of the film. Successes of Krrish and Rang De Basanti are apt examples of this phenomenon. Although movie marketing is fast catching up in India, it has been a key tool to launch movies in Hollywood for many years now. Being a more mature industry, the efforts that marketing makes to create noise around the film are researched and measured very regularly in the west.