The state of the Indian television advertising market is not looking too good. Ditto as far as the health of some of the television channels is concerned. That's the diagnosis of media specialist Starcom Worldwide.

It says that although television is the only medium that has defied the slowdown of 2001, so much so that it came neck and neck with print in terms of its share of the overall advertising pie during this period, there is still some cause for worry.

TV spends, says Starcom Worldwide, have grown an estimated 10 per cent in 2001 over 2000 from $550 million to $600 million - almost all of the growth can be attributed to the spurt in the first half from $267 million (in H1 2000) to $333 million (in H1 2001). That good first half performance was matched by a poor show in H2 2001 when TV ad spend actually collapsed by eight to nine per cent on a year on year basis from $289 million to $267 million.

The reasons:

* Continuing poor performance of the economy leading to low offtake.
* Depressed bourses and sentiments.
* 11 September events in the US and the resulting uncertainties.
* Postponement of key brand launches.
* A short wedding season in October and November.
* Lacklustre festive buying.

Starcom Worldwide says the bad climate has played havoc with smaller TV networks and channels being the hardest hit: most specialist genre channels have closed 2001 below targets and many even below their 2000 targets. The share of general entertainment channels' too has plunged from 37 per cent to 32 per cent despite a lot of money pumped into programming and marketing. (Source: Intam: North+West Metros, SEC ABC 15-44, C&S, GenEnt=Hindi Ent+Hindi Movies).

Additionally, prime time is being redefined with channels launching new programming to stretch the evening both ways but weekends continue to see reduced viewing. More viewers are watching the same programmes and longer (the number of programmes with TVRs more than five has risen from 14 to 28 in the past year).Many of the programmes have become dailies, but most remain concentrated on one channel.

The fact that Star Plus is ruling like a colossus means that it has gained at everyone else's expense - including its own sister channels -in 2001 (Source: Intam, SEC AB 15-44, C&S, North+West, June 2000 Vs Sep 2001). 28 out of the top 50 prime time programmes are part of Star Plus' Fixed Point Chart(FPC), says Starcom Worldwide, and it commands a 70% higher viewing share than the nearest rival, dominating all days of the week.

The transformation has been remarkable. The year 2000 had Zee TV with a channel share of 14 per cent marginally ahead of Sony (13 per cent) and Star lagging behind with a miniscule three per cent audience share. Today, Star Plus is at 15 per cent, and both Zee (six per cent) and Sony (nine per cent) combined match Star Plus' share. (Channel shares all day: Source: Intam, SEC AB 15-44, C&S, North+West, June 2000 Vs Sep 2001).

This has allowed Star Plus to charge a premium on Cost Per Rating Point (CPRP) with its per 10 second GRP cost being $400 as against $208 for Zee TV and $156 for Sony (Average CPRP for M 25+, SEC: ABC). Its dominance raises questions on the investment ability of Sony and Zee.

....But afternoon inventory was utilised better (monthly average inventory sold in terms of seconds) (Afternoon=1200-1600)
H2 2000	37145
H2 2001	53680

Starcom Worldwide's view is that Star Plus has sold more advertising seconds in 2001 on a month on month basis in 2000 but it has also increased its price 300 per cent in the past year, and thus its yield. Its prime time inventory time sale has fallen in 2001 to 60 per cent as against 69 per cent in 2000. However, its afternoon inventory utilisation has gone up to 73 per cent.

As against this, Zee TV has notched up between 25 per cent and 200 per cent more prime time air time inventory sales month on month (2001 over 2000). However, it has managed to do so by discounting its airtime sticker prices. Its effective CPRP has dropped to $156 for 10 seconds in H2 2001 as against $250 in H2 2000.

Sony, on its part, consciously reduced its prime time inventory sale in 2001 (H1 2001 saw the number of TV second commercials sales dropping 24 per cent). The channel could have sold more seconds, but preferred to change its image of a cluttered channel by selling less seconds per hour and establishing itself as a cleaner channel. The channel set a healthy trend for itself and managed to sell its entire prime time inventory in the year (except in December). But because it could not raise prices, its revenues in 2001 are likely to be 20 per cent lower. What's worrying for Sony is the fact that its revenue earning afternoon band turned into a bonussing band with commercial sales falling five per cent in 2001.

*All figures in the tables pertain to commercial ad seconds sold. [Source: Time Monitoring]. Channels' own promos and time sold for music albums and movie promos have been exlcuded.

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