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US
based Jupiter Media Metrix (JMM) has predicted that revenues
from paid online content will grow to only $5.8 billion by
2006, up from $1.4 billion in 2002.
JMM
that claims to be the global leader in Internet and new technology
analysis unveiled the report at the ninth annual Jupiter Media
Forum last week. Revenues for general content will reach $2.3
billion in 2006 up from $700 million in 2001, while revenues
from online games and digital music will be $1.8 billion and
$1.7 billion by 2006, respectively, the report says. Last
year, the figures stood at $260 million and $30 million, respectively.
Although
Jupiter forecasts that general content revenues will hit $2.3
billion by 2006, the market will stay relatively fragmented.
Within the general content category, the highest revenue generating
genres in 2006 will be audio/video entertainment ($600 million),
adult entertainment ($400 million) and financial and business
news content ($350 million).
Genres
expected to generate the least revenue in 2006 include: consumer/shopping
aids ($85 million), content for children ($95 million) and
sports content ($95 million). In addition, Jupiter revealed
the findings of a March 2002 Consumer Survey, which had 70
per cent of the respondents saying that they would not pay
for content online.
The figures indicate that the mass market still largely shuns
anything resembling a subscription online. However, in the
near term, media companies will create subscription services
through packaging, exclusivity and added interactive features,
the study notes. Over time, the companies must use the gradual
US broadband transition to reset industry ground rules and
recondition consumers' expectations.
42
per cent of online adults expect over time that people will
have to pay for content on the Internet. Consumers' attitudes
toward paying for content have, if anything, worsened since
August 2000, when 45 per cent of respondents answered the
question in the same way, the study says.
The
silver lining is that Jupiter analysts believe that major
media properties are in a better position than they were four
or five years ago, as they no longer face well-financed start-ups
giving away quality programming in an effort to lure new users.
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