(3 December 2007 9:00 pm)

MUMBAI: The Global mobile TV scenario presents some startling paradoxes: subscriber base to shoot; revenue to remain poor; and yet mobile phone companies would have to bear with this and start streaming TV on networks or face subscriber desertion.

The lion's share of the income from offering mobile TV services will be shared between the handset manufacturers, software companies and content creators, says a report by "Screen Digest".

In terms of revenue share, Europe will lead with 42.5 per cent, followed by the US at 40.5 per cent and Asia accounting to the remaining 17 per cent, with the total revenue valued at €4.4 billion from 140 million subscribers by 2011.

So far as subscriber growth is concerned, North America will experience the biggest increase, growing its subscriber base 20 fold to 28.8 million and revenues as much as 50 fold to €1.8bn by 2011 (see chart).

The latest report from media analysts in the magazine examines the market for mobile TV in 25 countries worldwide including Europe, the US and Asia.

According to the report there are a myriad of issues for mobile operators, broadcasters and content owners to address if they are to make a profit from increasing customer demand for mobile TV services.

There are currently more than 15 million subscribers to mobile TV in Asia where the majority of broadcast networks are offered free-to-air.

Italy has 850,000 paying subscribers, and France has more than half a million subscribers to Unicast services.

"Screen Digest" predicts significant growth in subscriber numbers globally, with 140 million subscribers by 2011.

However, subscriber numbers do not equate to revenue; the report says.

The magazine's analysis reveals that in the short term, network operators don't stand to make much profit from offering mobile TV services - yet they must offer it to remain competitive.

Operators who do not offer mobile TV will simply lose their subscribers to other operators or other media devices, such as the in-car devices so popular in Asia.

*However, the experience in Italy does offer mobile network operators themselves also an opportunity, and that is to upgrade pay-as-you-go customers to contracts in order to access the rich content.

By doing this, operators can enjoy a rise of as much as three times the revenue per unit, without increasing the already-saturated subscriber base.

Ronan de Renesse, author of the report, says: "The free-to-air services are the success stories for subscriber uptake, yet business models for mobile pay-TV are still to be proven.

"Content owners and handset manufacturers can gain in the short term with incremental revenues through a different distribution channel or by selling more expensive handsets."

Renesse adds that while mobile TV may not generate significant revenues for operators over the next four years, bundling to move subscribers to contract will.

The operators not investing now in mobile TV risk losing out when the subscriber base finally becomes large enough to generate revenues through pay-TV models and advertising, he asserts.