DVRs, HDTV to boost TV viewership, advertising in the US: PricewaterhouseCoopers

MUMBAI: PricewaterhouseCoopers has released its Global Entertainment and Media Outlook: 2006-2010 stating that digital video recorders (DVRs), digital television, and high-definition television (HDTV) will enhance the appeal of television, leading to increased viewership and advertising in the United States.

The UK and Germany are the two largest markets in Europe, Middle East and Africa region at $10.7 billion and $10.1 billion respectively, in 2005. Italy ranks third, at $7.8 billion, and PwC expects it will reach the $10-billion threshold in 2010.

Japan is the dominant country in the Asia Pacific in terms of value, at $19.7 billion in 2005, equivalent to 54 percent of total spending. Japan is slowly emerging from its long-term economic slump, and its television network market will expand at a 3.9 per cent annual rate through 2010. This marks a significant improvement compared with the 0.2 per cent growth compounded annually during the past few years.

Venezuela will be the fastest-growing market in Latin America, at 14 per cent compounded annually. However growth will be artificially augmented by continued high inflation, a factor no longer present to a significant degree in the rest of the region.

The television network market in Canada will expand at a relatively steady 4.3 per cent compound annual rate to $4.5 billion in 2010 from $3.7 billion in 2005.

As far as distribution of television content is concerned in the US, video on demand will be the fastest-growing category, at 22 per cent compounded annually, and will grow to $3.9 billion in 2010.

Italy will be the fastest-growing country in Europe, Middle East and Africa, with a 22.9 per cent compound annual growth, fuelled by a rapidly expanding satellite market and growing IPTV.

In the Asia Pacific region, Hong Kong has been the fastest-growing market during the past two years, more than doubling as a result of the introduction of new channels and a developing IPTV market. Although Hong Kong constituted less than 1 percent of all subscription households in Asia Pacific in 2005, it accounted for 57 percent of the region’s IPTV households.

The TV distribution market in Latin America, regardless of distribution platform, has been gaining momentum during the past three years and will post double-digit increases beginning in 2006 that will extend through 2009 before dropping to a high-single digit gain in 2010.

In Canada, buoyed by the revitalization of cable, video on demand is taking off and by 2009 will generate more revenue than pay-per-view will.

Sports: As far as sporting events are concerned in the US, gate revenues will total an estimated $20.7 billion in 2010, up 6.6 per cent compounded annually from $15.1 billion in 2005. In the Europe, Middle East and Africa region sponsorships, merchandising, and other revenue will rise to $10.1 billion in 2010, an 8.9 per cent compound annual gain from $6.6 billion in 2005.

In the Asia Pacific region, large increases in TV advertising and subscription revenue will propel TV rights fees. In Latin America, an emerging broadband market and sustained economic growth will expand the sponsorship and merchandising market. The return of the NHL will propel all components of the sports market in Canada in 2006.

Cinema: The American box office growth will average 4.3 per cent compounded annually during the next five years from a weak 2005, taking total box office spending from $9.0 billion in 2005 to $11.1 billion in 2010. However, admissions in 2010 will remain below the levels achieved during 2002-04.

In the Europe, Middle East and Africa region online subscription services and video streaming services are entering the market. Together, they will reach $2.2 billion by 2010 from only $216 million in 2005, averaging 59.1 per cent growth compounded annually.

In the Asia Pacific, high-definition video and reduced piracy will stimulate the sell-through market. PwC projects sell-through spending to grow at a 6.2 per cent compound annual rate to $6.2 billion in 2010 from $4.6 billion in 2005.

Countries in Latin America are supporting local production through various subsidy programmes. As the experience of 2004-05 indicates, the success of local films can have a dramatic impact on the overall market.
In Canada, sell-through growth will average 4.9 percent compounded annually to $3.8 billion, and rentals will be flat at $1.3 billion.

Music: Licensed digital distribution in the US will rise from $653 million in 2005 to $4.9 billion in 2010, a 49.5 per cent compound annual increase. From a five per cent share in 2005, digital distribution will constitute 33 per cent of recorded music spending in 2010.

The launch of new digital distribution services and growth in the number of broadband Internet subscribers in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region will fuel digital download spending. In the Asia Pacific, piracy will continue to cut into sales. On a more positive note improved enforcement, combined with an increasingly more sophisticated and enabled economy, will lessen its incremental impact as antipiracy efforts begin to yield results.

In Latin America, anti piracy initiatives are beginning to yield results, and although still a major problem, piracy will have less of an adverse incremental impact on unit sales. New services and an expanding broadband market in Canada will boost licensed digital distribution services.

Radio and Out-of-Home Advertising: In the US, satellite radio will increase from $1 billion in 2005 to $5.4 billion in 2010, a 39.5 per cent compound annual increase.

PwC projects the radio and out-of-home market in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region will expand from $23.1 billion in 2005 to $29.2 billion in 2010,growing at a 4.8 percent compound annual rate.
In the Asia Pacific, region the radio and out-of home market will increase from $11.0 billion in 2005 to $14.1 billion in 2010, growing at a 5.0 percent compound annual rate. Excluding Japan, growth for the remainder of the region will average 8.2 per cent compounded annually.

In Latin America, rising employment will boost commuting and lead to increased exposure to out-of-home media. In Canada, the digital broadcasting market will boost the number of stations and expand the potential market, but increased audience fragmentation will dampen ad rates.

Video Games: In the US, wireless games will experience the fastest rate of growth, increasing from $646 million in 2005 to $2.3 billion in 2010, a 28.6 percent compound annual increase.

In the Europe, Middle East and Africa region the online game market will be driven by increased penetration of the broadband subscriber market as well as by the new consoles, which will emphasize online play.

In the Asia Pacific region, online games became the second-largest category in 2005, passing the PC game total, and will increase by 23 per cent compounded annually, reaching $4.4 billion in 2010 as compared with $1.6 billion in 2005.

As a result of lack of competition from the newer online and wireless technologies, PC games are relatively more important in Latin America and are not exhibiting the declines evident elsewhere in the world. Canada has one of the highest broadband penetration rates in the world, spurring growth in the online game segment.

Magazine Publishing: In the US, advertising in this area will total $29.2 billion in 2010, up 4.5 per cent on a compound annual basis, with consumer magazines reaching $16 billion, growing by 4.5 per cent compounded annually, and business magazines rising to $13.2 billion, a 4.4 percent average annual increase.

The UK has the largest magazine advertising market in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region and ranks second in circulation spending. The market has been bolstered by new titles targeting men.

New regulations will encourage international publishers to invest in China and India, thereby stimulating magazine publishing in these territories.

Brazil is the dominant market in Latin America, at $1.3 billion, 48 per cent of the total, followed by Argentina, at $606 million, and Mexico, at $598 million. Circulation spending in Canada rebounded in 2005 with a 0.9 per cent increase following five years of decline.

Newspaper Publishing: In the US, newspaper web sites will drive advertising growth as online distribution becomes a significant delivery channel.

In Europe, Middle East and Africa new formats and giveaways will boost circulation temporarily--largely at the expense of competitors utilizing traditional approaches while increased investment in presses will improve the appearance of newspapers and help attract readers over the longer run.

Japan is the largest market in Asia Pacific, at $21.1 billion in 2005 and 45 per cent of the total. The market has been essentially flat during the past three years, which represented an improvement compared with low- to mid-single-digit declines during 2001-02.

PwC projects newspaper publishing in Latin America will increase from $5.4 billion in 2005 to $7.0 billion in 2010, a compound annual gain of 5.4 percent. In Canada, cutbacks in household delivery together with competition from free papers will adversely affect paid circulation, but strength among smaller papers will limit the decline.

Book Publishing: In the US, professional books are migrating to electronic formats, leading to a decline in print spending. The print book market in Western Europe will rise to $46.8 billion in 2010 from $43.2 billion in 2005, a 1.6 per cent compound annual increase.

Japan and China are the dominant countries in the Asia Pacific region, at $9.0 billion and $6.8 billion, respectively. Together, they constituted 71 per cent of the print market in 2005.

In Latin America, improved economic conditions will help consumer book sales, but low readership levels and piracy will restrain the market. Rising college enrollments and increased school spending will boost the educational book market in Canada.

Theme Parks and Amusement Parks: New rides and attractions will lead to modest attendance growth, but only one major new regional park is planned in the US. France is the major theme park market in Europe, Middle East and Africa and has the most popular park in the region: Disneyland Paris. Disneyland Paris and Walt Disney Studios Park attract more than 12 million visitors annually.

Improved economic conditions will lead to a rebound in Japan and South Korea, while increased investment and rising domestic tourism will stimulate the market in Australia.

In the Latin America, more-stable economies will increase disposable income, which will contribute to growth in attendance and per capita spending.

In Canada, the top two parks will grow slightly faster than the smaller parks, averaging 4.2 per cent compounded annually compared with 3.9 per cent annually for the smaller parks.

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