Television

India C&S industry revenues to hit $11b by 2015: report

MUMBAI: Revenues generated by the cable and satellite industry in India will increase from a current estimated $2.6 billion to $ 10.9 billion by 2015, according to the Media Partners's Asia Pacific cable and satellite markets 2003 (ACSM 2003) report, focusing on 13 broadband pay TV markets in the Asia Pacific.

Forecasts published in ACSM 2003 further indicate that India's total multichannel pay TV subscribers could expand to 96 million (65 per cent penetration) by end-2015 from a current estimated 44 million subs.

The ACSM 2003 report has projected a $ 50 billion franchise for Asia's cable and satellite industry by 2015 from a current estimated $ 14.3 billion. 

ACSM 2003 predicts that multichannel pay TV subscriber base could expand to 295.4 million by Y/E 2015 (40 per cent penetration). Taiwan (92 per cent), Korea (85 per cent) and India (65 per cent) will remain the highest penetrated markets in the region by Y/E 2015. China (142 million), India (96 million), Japan (25 million), Korea (14.4 million) and Taiwan (6.3 million) will remain the major markets in terms of total subs. 

The ASCM 2003 report estimates for India:     

Year 2002

Year 2015

Penetration    

53 per cent

65 per cent

Total number of subs    

44 million

96 million

Total industry revenues    

$ 2.6 billion

$ 10.9 billion

Leading digital C&S subs    

N.A

15.2 million

By Y/E 2015, the leading markets, in terms of total industry revenues, would converge around the region's primary axis of media power, namely, Japan ($14.5 billion), China ($11.2 billion) and India ($10.9 billion). By Y/E 2015, the leading digital cable & satellite markets, in terms of total subs, will be Japan (20.8 million), China (15.5 million) and India (15.2 million). 

The ACSM 2003 report stated that Asia's cable and satellite industries are beginning to develop a valuable consumer-focused and content-led pay TV franchise, boosted by the introduction of tiered digital video services along with aggressively bundled high-speed Internet access and telephony. 

The report maintained that this change follows the investments of $30 billion towards the build-out of broadband HFC cable and digital direct-to-home (DTH) satellite networks over the past decade. These trends represent the beginning of a long-term cycle that could see total industry revenues more than double from $14.3 billion at Y/E 2002 to $28.9 billion at Y/E 2007 and thereafter grow to almost $50 billion by Y/E 2015. 

The report also states that the revenue generation would be driven by the adoption of addressable digital set-top boxes at affordable prices and the expansion of Internet and telephony services, allowing pay TV systems across Asia to offer consumers content-rich tiers of expanded programming alongside Internet access, telephony and interactive TV. 

The accelerated rollout of digital video services would also enable the industry to finally resolve revenue leakage problems associated with subscriber under reporting and piracy. At the same time, positive trends in deregulation should take concrete shape in key markets with strategic and financial investment likely to increase as regulatory caps are lifted and concerns over pay TV's infrastructure-heavy and bandwidth-focused past, are replaced by positive sentiment on its consumer-led and brandwidth-focused future. 

ACSM 2003 report on trends in the year 2002: According to ACSM 2003, which focuses on 13 broadband pay TV markets in the Asia Pacific, total multichannel cable & satellite video or pay TV subscribers increased by 10 per cent Y/Y in 2002 to reach more than 166 million (29 per cent penetration of total TV homes in the region), while cable modem (Internet/data) customers were up 48 per cent Y/Y to 6.7 million and cable telephony (voice) users increased 59 per cent Y/Y to 641,000. 

In terms of pay TV penetration, the leading markets in Asia, at Y/E 2002, were Taiwan (83 per cent), Korea (53 per cent) and India (52 per cent); in terms of subs, the leading markets were China (95 million), India (44 million), Korea (8.4 million), Japan (8.2 million) and Taiwan (5.1 million). 

Digital video or pay TV subs were up 30 per cent to 6.6 million, largely driven by significant digital DTH satellite growth in Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Australia, New Zealand and Thailand and followed slowly by the first year of digital cable deployment in Asia, led by Hong Kong, China and Taiwan. 

At Y/E 2002, the overall broadband cable & satellite industry was worth $14.3 billion in total revenues (subscription and advertising), up 25 per cent Y/Y, with video services contributing 85 per cent ($12.1 billion), Internet/data, 14.5 per cent ($2.07 billion) and telephony, 0.5 per cent ($76 million). Subscription revenues increased 28 per cent Y/Y to $12.2 billion, while advertising showed a robust 10 per cent Y/Y growth to $2.1 billion. 

In terms of total industry revenues, the leading markets, at Y/E 2002, were Japan ($4.3 billion), India ($2.6 billion), China ($2.5 billion), Korea ($1.8 billion) and Taiwan ($1.3 billion). By platform, cable (video, voice and data) had an 85 per cent share of total industry revenues with satellite (video) at 15 per cent. 

ACSM 2003 report on trends in the year 2015: Forecasts published in ACSM 2003 indicate that total multichannel pay TV subs could expand to 226.7 million by Y/E 2007 (35 per cent penetration of total TV homes in the region) and 295.4 million by Y/E 2015 (40 per cent penetration). Taiwan (92 per cent), Korea (85 per cent) and India (65 per cent) will remain the highest penetrated markets in the region by Y/E 2015, followed by New Zealand (64 per cent), Singapore (61 per cent), Hong Kong (60 per cent), Japan (49 per cent) and Australia (39 per cent). 

China (142 million), India (96 million), Japan (25 million), Korea (14.4 million) and Taiwan (6.3 million) will remain the major markets in terms of total subs. By Y/E 2015, ACSM 2003 also projects 28.1 million cable modem subs in the region, with growth largely generated from China, Korea, Japan and Taiwan. Over the same period, cable telephony (including VOIP) users could grow to 6.8 million, driven by China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Australia. 

The report sees digital cable & DTH satellite subs rising from 6.6 million at Y/E 2002 to 32.6 million at Y/E 2007 and 72.2 million by Y/E 2015, implying 10 per cent digital pay TV penetration of total TV homes by Y/E 2015 and 24 per cent of the overall 295.4 million pay TV sub base. 

Digital satellite growth will be driven by Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Australia, New Zealand, Thailand and potentially, India, with total digital DTH subs rising from a Y/E 2002 base of 6.3 million to over 17.8 million at Y/E 2007 and over 34 million at Y/E 2015. 

Digital cable deployment should assume rapid growth over the next decade, led by Taiwan, Australia, China, India, Korea and Japan with total digital cable subs expanding from only 305,000 at Y/E 2002 to 14.8 million by Y/E 2007, and 38.2 million by Y/E 2015. 

By Y/E 2015, the leading digital cable & satellite markets, in terms of total subs, will be Japan (20.8 million), China (15.5 million), India (15.2 million), Korea (6.95 million), Australia (3.3 million) and Taiwan (2.9 million). 

The expanded rollout of digital video together with high speed Internet and/or telephony could boost total industry revenues to $29 billion by Y/E 2007 and $49.5 billion by Y/E 2015 with subscription revenues at over $44 bil. and advertising at $5.5 billion. 

By Y/E 2015, content-led basic, expanded basic and premium cable & satellite video services will remain the dominant revenue generator for the industry, contributing 85 per cent ($42 billion) to the total pie with cable modem services at 14 per cent ($6.8 billion) and telephony at 1 per cent ($715 million). 

By platform, cable (video, voice and data) will have a 78 per cent share of total industry revenues by Y/E 2015 with DTH satellite (video) at 22 per cent. By Y/E 2015, the leading markets, in terms of total industry revenues, would converge around the region's primary axis of media power, namely, Japan ($14.5 billion), China ($11.2 billion) and India ($10.9 billion), with Korea ($5.2 billion), Taiwan ($2.6 billion) and Australia ($1.9 billion) representing a significant secondary axis.

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