| According to latest ad data available with SSB analysts:
on 28 Dec alone, Reliance's 80-second ad campaign ("Tribute to
Dhirubhai Ambani") was broadcast across 24 channels generating
189 spots or 15,120 seconds of advertising. Zee bouquet of channels
got only 10 per cent share of this duration (possibly lower share
of spend) with ad spots on its regional channels. Alpha Marathi and
Alpha Gujarathi getting 720 seconds each out the entire burst.
The report claims that no spots were bought on flagship channel
Zee TV, movie channel Zee Cinema or Zee News. While clearly one
day's ad spend for one brand is not representative of the overall
media plan of the industry, yet the SSB analysts believe that Reliance
Infocomm would have chosen channels so as to create the maximum
possible impact. The commercial launch of Reliance Infocomm is in
February or March 2003 and substantial spending is envisaged.
The SSB team also compared this spend with that of the other telecom
brands' (eg, Airtel Magic) entire prime time advertising duration
for a quarter.
It also expressed concern that Zee's bouquet of channels do not
address the South Indian market (20-30 per cent of the total C&S
advertising market, according to industry estimates).
Looking at other telecom brand advertising - Airtel and IDEA
The SSB team also considered the advertising duration on various
channels for other telecom brands such as Airtel (cellular brands
of Bharti Televenture across 15 circles covering 58 per cent of
the Indian population) and IDEA for the period 1 October- 21 December
2002 (coinciding with Zee's movie premiere strategy).
The takeaways were similar. Zee's channels (Zee TV, Zee News and
ETC) enjoyed only a 5.4 per cent duration share of the total advertising
duration of these brands. In the key Hindi general entertainment
category, Star Plus was the clear leader, enjoying a 77 per cent
share of the advertising duration, while Sony (20 per cent) and
Zee (3 per cent) accounted for the rest.
Also noteworthy is the fact that during the period under review
(1 October - 21 December), Zee's Thursday "Movie Premiere"
was running. Clearly, none of the telecom advertisers from the above
sample was drawn to advertise on the channel because of the movies.
SSB rationale
The SSB reasons that the data validates its earlier viewpoint
that
* Advertisers (and media planners) prefer to advertise on programs
about which they have some idea of the stickiness of the audience
- movies have a more fickle audience than highly rated soaps
* Rating points of advertisements aired during movie breaks compared
with ads aired during top-rated TV serials indicate that it continues
to be more cost effective to advertise during regular shows than
during movies. An earlier SSB report has stated that a cola advertisement
on Star Plus generated a rating of 11.61, the same advertisement
when aired during Zee TV's Thursday movie slot generated a rating
of only 3.57.
* A sustained improvement in ratings of the flagship channel remains
the only fundamental trigger for the stock in SSB's view and is
all the more important given the marriage of subscription and ad
revenue streams to content post-CAS.
Impact on Zee
The SSB report claims that the overall improvement in viewership
ratings is a key element for Zee's growth. The SSB analysts have
however retained their in-line rating and Rs 115 price target, relative
to their Sensex target of 3875.
Zee's network of channels got only a 10 per cent share of the
ad duration. It is likely that the share of spend could be lower
as Star Plus, Sony Entertainment Television and some regional channels
such as Sun TV enjoy premium ad rates.
The report mentions that some of the recent new programmes on Zee
have been positively received but they have failed to make a sustainable
impact on the overall viewership data.
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