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Video streams are driving to top 6 billion accesses this year,
while aggregate tuning hours for Internet radio should reach about
140 million aggregate tuning hours per month across all aggregator
and network sites by the end of the year.
On the video side, music, news and film are forecast to grow at
the highest percentage rates year-over-year through 2005. Sports
programming -- currently forecast to drop to single-digit growth
in 2005 -- remains a wild card, because many leagues and brands
are moving behind subscription services targeting broadband PC audiences.
While pay broadband streams are now catching up to free or ad supported
streams in key content categories, a recovering ad market could
tip that two-year trend back toward more sponsored, ad-supported
or distributor subsidised content.
The following table represents video streams served by content
category from 2000-2005. The figures indicate millions of users.
| |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
| Film |
117.7 |
434.0 |
719.8 |
978.9 |
1,211.2 |
1,392.8 |
| Internet TV |
90.0 |
294.7 |
333.2 |
428.2 |
503.7 |
551.2 |
| News |
242.5 |
791.4 |
1,041.7 |
1,570.4 |
2,064.2 |
2,476.1 |
| General Entertainment |
145.2 |
259.7 |
411.8 |
580.6 |
695.5 |
765.4 |
| Sports |
183.4 |
338.1 |
469.4 |
599.7 |
707.5 |
753.4 |
| Music |
269.8 |
476.0 |
883.0 |
1,384.8 |
1,857.2 |
2,157.5 |
Research director Paul Palumbo says, "This report has it all.
It contains thousands of data points by channel, network, programme,
event and channel going back to 1998. Forecasts are based on detailed
historical usage patterns, broadband streaming media consumption
rates, the adoption of subscription services and audience behaviors
inside pay environments."
The report notes that major media brands are more quickly exploiting
their video franchises online (studios, cable TV networks, broadcasters
along with their broadband PC and streaming beyond the PC distribution
partners).
Larger broadcast brands will continue to dominate key categories
of streaming media ratings, along with major online-only brands
such as Yahoo, Real Networks, but there is a developing opportunity
for new and independent producers with good programming ideas.
The report also notes that the size of the streaming media audience
has grown so rapidly over the past three years that hit programmes
can and do jump quickly into the top ranks of streaming sites on
a monthly basis. More hits will encourage more innovative investment.
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