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Speaking to indiantelevision.com, Subhabrata Majumder of Motilal
Oswal Securities stated, "The takeover of operations by the
promoter Subhash Chandra and his forthcoming appointment as the
managing director has ushered in a phase wherein several changes
are being initiated in every area of operation. Post CAS, the business
and the revenue profile is also changing for the better with higher
reliance on the stable pay revenues in the domestic and international
arena."
Majumder also added, "It is a good sign that Zee is also exercising
caution and restraint in the new programming acquisitions (non-film
based programmes) other than the high-cost films slated for the
Thursday night premier slots. In fact, the effective cost for the
Zee Network has not been affected to the fact that the channel has
been interspersing the new programmes with the recycled ones from
his archives."
"However, the scrip had a heady run on the stock market since
September 2001. From the Rs 80-90 levels, it increased to Rs 180-190
before settling down at the current level of around Rs 100. However,
in the post-CAS scenario, the intrinsic value of the scrip should
have placed it at about Rs 135," Majumder stated.
The MOSt Inquire report also states that there would be no
adverse implication for Zee Telefilms due to the riders attached
to recent revision of Star's bouquet rates. The report claims that
the Star move cleared the decks for an upward revision of the Zee-Turner
bouquet. Subsequently, Zee has taken the plunge and announced what
is clearly a significant hike in its package price from Rs 42 to
Rs 50 for the complete bouquet of 16 channels, effective 1 January
2003. The report states that this move will grow Zee's paid subscriber
base apart and help it to grow in value and volume terms.
Majumder added, "The recent trends indicate that the ratio
of subscription revenues to advertising revenues is undergoing a
shift. In FY01, the advertising revenues and subscription revenues
were 70.8 percent and 20.8 percent respectively. By FY03, the advertising
revenues and subscription revenues will be 56.4 percent (estimated)
and 40.1 percent (estimated) respectively. The EBITDA as a percentage
of the net sales has also gone up from 25.6 percent in FY01 to 33.5
percent in FY03 (estimated)."
The MOSt Inquire report also stated that the inclusion of
new channels in the Zee-Turner bouquet will make the Zee offering
more attractive vis-à-vis the competitive bouquets. The Zee-Turner
bouquet will have a variety of channels and genres. However, the
Zee-Turner bouquet doesn't have any sports channel or infotainment/educational
channel.
The report also estimates that Zee's domestic pay revenues would
grow to Rs 2.4 billion in FY04, a growth of 52 percent over the
firm's FY03 estimate of Rs1.6 billion. With this, the share of subscription
revenues to total revenues would increase to 40% in FY03 and to
44% in FY04.
The report also stated that the flagship channel Zee TV's share
in ad revenues as well as total revenues had been witnessing a sharp
decline in recent times. This was likely to bring down the concentration
risk in Zee's revenue-mix.
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