Cisco's mobile Internet data traffic forecast for 2016

NEW DELHI: Worldwide mobile data traffic will increase 18-fold over the next five years, reaching 10.8 exabytes per month -- or an annual run rate of 130 exabytes -- by 2016.

The Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast for 2011 to 2016 says the expected sharp increase in mobile traffic is due in part to a projected surge in the number of mobile Internet-connected devices, which will exceed the number of people on earth (2016 world population estimate of 7.3 billion; source: United Nations).

During 2011-2016 Cisco anticipates that global mobile data traffic will outgrow global fixed data traffic by three times.

The forecast predicts an annual run rate of 130 exabytes of mobile data traffic, equivalent to 33 billion DVDs; 4.3 quadrillion MP3 files (music/audio); and 813 quadrillion short message service (SMS) text messages. An exabyte is a unit of information or computer storage equal to one quintillion bytes.

This mobile data traffic increase represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 78 per cent spanning the forecast period. The incremental amount of traffic being added to the mobile Internet between 2015 and 2016 alone is approximately three times the estimated size of the entire mobile Internet in 2012.

According to the updated forecast by Cisco, Asia-Pacific will have an 84 per cent CAGR, or 21-fold growth, while Middle East and Africa will have the highest regional mobile data traffic growth rate with a CAGR of 104 per cent, or 36-fold growth. Central and Eastern Europe will have an 83 per cent CAGR, or 21-fold growth. Latin America will have a 79 per cent CAGR, or 18-fold growth. North America will have a 75 per cent CAGR, or 17-fold growth. Western Europe will have a 68 per cent CAGR, or 14-fold growth.

Mobile video will comprise 71 per cent of all mobile data traffic by 2016. The Cisco study also projects that 71 per cent of all smartphones and tablets (1.6 billion) could be capable of connecting to an Internet Protocol version 6 (IPv6) mobile network by 2016. From a broader perspective, 39 per cent of all global mobile devices (more than 4 billion), could be IPv6-capable by 2016.

With the consumer expectations increasingly requiring on-demand or streamed content versus simply downloaded content, mobile cloud traffic will increase, growing 28-fold from 2011 to 2016, a CAGR of 95 per cent.

There will be more than 10 billion mobile Internet-connected devices in 2016, including machine-to-machine (M2M) modules -- exceeding the world’s projected population at that time of 7.3 billion. (One M2M application is the use of wireless networks to update digital billboards. This allows advertisers to display different messages based on time of day or day-of-week and allows quick global changes for messages, such as pricing changes for gasoline).

Mobile devices are becoming more powerful and, thus, able to consume and generate more data traffic. Tablets are a prime example of this trend generating traffic levels that will grow 62-fold from 2011 to 2016 -- the highest growth rate of any device category tracked in the forecast. The amount of mobile data traffic generated by tablets in 2016 (1 exabyte per month) will be four times the total amount of monthly global mobile data traffic in 2010 (237 petabytes per month).

Mobile network connection speed is a key enabler for mobile data traffic growth. More speed means more consumption, and Cisco projects mobile speeds (including 2G, 3G and 4G networks) to increase nine-fold from 2011 to 2016.

By 2016, there will be more than 8 billion handheld or personal mobile-ready devices and nearly two billion machine-to-machine connections, such as GPS systems in cars, asset tracking systems in shipping and manufacturing sectors and medical applications for making patient records more readily available.

Smartphones, laptops and other portable devices will drive about 90 per cent of global mobile data traffic by 2016. M2M traffic will represent 5 per cent of 2016 global mobile data traffic while residential broadband mobile gateways will account for the remaining 5 per cent of global mobile data traffic.

Service providers are increasingly looking to offload traffic to fixed/Wi-Fi networks. In 2011, 11 percent, or 72 petabytes, per month of total mobile data traffic was offloaded. By 2016, 22 per cent, or 3.1 exabytes, per month of total mobile data traffic will be offloaded. Without offloading, the 2011-2016 global mobile data traffic CAGR would be 84 per cent instead of 78 per cent.

The average mobile connection speed doubled last year and is expected to increase nine-fold by 2016. Mobile connection speeds are a key factor in supporting and accommodating mobile data traffic growth.

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